A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
